US FINANCIAL MARKET

Traders Climbing Wall of Worry After Furious Rally: Markets Wrap – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• A rally in the tech space put stocks on pace for their longest winning run in two years, with traders shrugging off the latest attempts from Federal Reserve speakers to push back on the market’s recent dovish bid.
• The S&P 500 rose for a seventh straight day — heading toward its longest winning streak since November 2021. 
• The S&P 500 rose 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.2%.
• The Nasdaq 100 gained 1%, with most big techs in the green and a surge in the cloud software space. 
• The dollar extended its rebound from the lowest level since September. 
• Bonds climbed after Bank of England Chief Economist Huw Pill hinted rate cuts may be on the table by the middle of 2024. 
• The yield on 10-year Treasuries declined five basis points to 4.59%.
• Two US central bank officials emphasized Tuesday that bringing inflation fully down to the 2% goal is their main focus. 
• Fed Bank of Minneapolis President Neel Kashkari said policymakers have yet to win the fight against inflation and they will consider more tightening if needed. 
• His Chicago counterpart Austan Goolsbee said officials don’t want to “pre-commit” decisions on rates.
• Meantime, November’s bond auctions will give a first glimpse into the market’s appetite for additional duration risk after the Treasury Department increased auction sizes again at the quarterly refunding. 
• This week’s 3-, 10-, and 30-year offerings will amount to $112 billion versus $103 billion at August’s refunding offerings, which may lead to continued auction weakness, according to Ira Jersey, a rates strategist at Bloomberg Intelligence.
• UBS Group reported stronger-than-expected client inflows in its wealth-management business, boosted by the first signs of stabilization at Credit Suisse as it carries out an expensive and complex integration of its former rival.
• D.R. Horton reported worse-than-expected quarterly orders as soaring mortgage rates hit demand.
• Datadog soared after the cloud software company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and raised its full-year forecast.
• Uber Technologies gave a mixed picture of its business, showing a second consecutive profitable quarter and an increase in demand for rides and delivery but also slowing revenue growth.
• The Stoxx Europe 600 was little changed.
• The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rose 0.3%.
• West Texas Intermediate crude fell 3.1% to $78.29 a barrel.
• Spot gold fell 0.8% to $1,963.20 an ounce.

Uber reports third-quarter results that miss analysts’ expectations – CNBC, 11/7/2023

• Uber reported third-quarter results Tuesday that missed analysts’ expectations on the top and bottom lines but showed strength in other areas, like gross bookings, which exceeded the company’s guidance from the second quarter.
• Revenue: $9.29 billion vs. $9.52 billion expected by LSEG.
• Gross bookings for the quarter came in at $35.3 billion, up 21% year over year and above the company’s guidance last quarter.
• Mobility (gross bookings): $17.90 billion, up 31% year over year.
• Delivery (gross bookings): $16.09 billion, up 18% year over year.
• The number of Uber’s monthly active platform consumers reached 142 million in the second quarter, up 15% year over year. 
• There were 2.44 billion trips completed on the platform during the period, up 25% year over year.
• Uber reported adjusted EBITDA of $1.09 billion, up $576 million year over year and above the $1.02 billion expected by analysts polled by StreetAccount. 
• Earnings per share: 10 cents vs. 12 cents expected by LSEG, formerly known as Refinitiv.
• For the fourth quarter of 2023, Uber said it expects to report gross bookings between $36.5 billion and $37.5 billion, compared with StreetAccount estimates of $36.5 billion, and adjusted EBITDA of $1.18 billion to $1.24 billion.

Datadog’s stock explodes toward best day on record after earnings – Market Watch, 11/7/2023

• Datadog shares were roaring higher in morning action Tuesday after the software company, which makes tools for monitoring infrastructure and application performance, showed upside with its latest quarterly results and delivered a better-than-expected forecast.
• Datadog’s third-quarter revenue came in at $547.5 million, up from $436.5 million a year before and ahead of the $524.7 million that analysts tracked by FactSet were projecting.
• On an adjusted basis, Datadog earned 45 cents a share, far ahead of the 34-cent FactSet consensus.
• For the fourth quarter, Datadog anticipates $564 million to $568 million in revenue, along with 42 cents to 44 cents in adjusted earnings per share. 
• Analysts were looking for $545 million and 35 cents, respectively.

D.R. Horton Issues Upbeat Fiscal 2024 Revenue Forecast – Market Watch, 11/7/2023

• D.R. Horton issued an upbeat revenue forecast for its fiscal 2024, betting that housing demand will barrel forward despite higher mortgage rates.
• The homebuilder, based in Arlington, Texas, is targeting fiscal-year revenue of about $36 billion to $37 billion. 
• Analysts surveyed by FactSet expected fiscal 2024 revenue of $36.09 billion. 
• The company’s fiscal year started in early October.

Diamondback Energy Posts Decline in 3Q Revenue, Net Income – Market Watch, 11/7/2023

• Diamondback Energy posted lower top and bottom line results for the latest quarter.
• Revenue edged down to $2.34 billion from $2.44 billion. Analysts polled by FactSet expected $2.21 billion.
• The Midland, Texas-based company drilled 79 gross wells in the Midland Basin and seven gross wells in the Delaware Basin in the quarter.
• Diamondback’s third-quarter production averaged 452.8 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day.
• Adjusted earnings were $5.49 a share, above analysts’ estimates of $5.01 a share.

SpaceX Eyes $15 Billion in Sales Next Year on Starlink Strength – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• SpaceX is on track to book revenues of about $9 billion this year across its rocket launch and Starlink businesses, according to people familiar with the matter, with sales projected to rise to around $15 billion in 2024.
• Sales for Starlink, in particular, are expected to outpace and exceed the launch business next year as the product becomes available in more regions around the world, according to the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. 
• Starlink will then represent the majority of SpaceX revenue, the people said.
• It also has deals with NASA to ferry astronauts to and from the International Space Station and run resupply missions. 
• A tender offer at SpaceX earlier this year valued the company at about $150 billion, Bloomberg previously reported.

Coterra Energy beats third-quarter profit estimates on higher production – Reuters, 11/7/2023

• Oil and gas producer Coterra Energy reported a third-quarter profit on Monday that beat analysts’ estimates, helped by an increase in production and higher realized prices.
• On an adjusted basis, the company earned 50 cents per share. 
• Analysts had expected a profit of 44 cents, according to LSEG data.
• Coterra reported third-quarter production of 670,000 barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd), compared with its previous forecast of 625,000 to 655,000 boepd.
• The company forecast fourth-quarter production between 645,000 and 680,000 boepd.

GlobalFoundries Issues Soft 4Q Revenue Outlook – Market Watch, 11/7/2023

• GlobalFoundries issued a soft outlook for current-quarter revenue, but the chip maker’s profit forecast was upbeat.
• The company, based in Malta, N.Y., is targeting fourth-quarter revenue of $1.825 billion to $1.875 billion. 
• Analysts surveyed by FactSet were expecting $1.89 billion.
• GlobalFoundries is forecasting fourth-quarter adjusted earnings of 53 cents a share to 64 cents a share. 
• Analysts were expecting 53 cents a share, according to FactSet.

Celanese Sees 4Q Adjusted Profit Below Estimates – Market Watch, 11/7/2023

• Celanese expects fourth-quarter adjusted earnings to come in below expectations, resulting in full-year earnings at the lower end of previous guidance.
• The Dallas-based chemical and specialty materials supplier expects fourth-quarter adjusted profit of $2.10 to $2.50 a share, compared with the $2.68 expected by analysts polled by FactSet.
• The company said the forecast includes 30 cents a share of amortized expense from its acquisition of Dupont’s mobility and materials segment for $11 billion in cash.
• Celanese now sees full-year adjusted earnings per share at the lower end of its previous range of $9 to $10. Analysts polled by FactSet expect $9.08 a share.

EV Makers Turn to Discounts to Combat Waning Demand – Wall Street Journal, 11/7/2023

• Buyers looking to get a bargain on a new car might want to consider an electric vehicle.
• As sales growth has slowed for battery-powered models, automakers and dealers are slashing prices and piling on discounts to clear out unsold inventory.
• Some automakers, such as Hyundai Motor and Ford Motor, are this month offering cash rebates as high as $7,500 on some models. 
• Others are resorting to aggressive lease deals that offer cheaper monthly payments or shorter contract lengths to attract buyers. 
• Many car companies are offering low-interest rate promotions in an attempt to make pricey EVs more affordable.
• Market leader Tesla has slashed prices this year across its lineup, reducing the starting price of some models by roughly a third. 
• Ford Motor has also marked down its Mustang Mach-E SUV at least two times this year.
• Car executives and dealers say the discounts and price cuts are necessary because buyers are less willing to pay a premium for an EV.

Kinder to Buy NextEra’s South Texas Gas Pipes for $1.8 Billion – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• Kinder Morgan agreed to buy NextEra Energy Partners’s South Texas natural gas pipeline assets for $1.815 billion in cash.
• The STX Midstream pipeline system connects the Eagle Ford Basin to Mexican and US Gulf Coast markets. 
• The assets include a 90% interest in the NET Mexico pipeline and a 50% stake in Dos Caminos, Kinder Morgan said Monday.
• The deal is Kinder’s sixth purchase in the past three years. 

Vivid Seats Makes Big Bet on Las Vegas – Wall Street Journal, 11/7/2023

• Vivid Seats, the online ticket marketplace, is making a big bet on the Las Vegas Strip with a roughly $240 million deal to buy the operator of Vegas.com. 
• The cash-and-stock deal consists of $151.2 million in cash and $88.8 million in Vivid’s Class-A common stock, executives told The Wall Street Journal. 
• Vegas.com offers consumers information on shows, attractions and tours in Las Vegas, as well as help booking flights and hotels in the area. 
• Chicago-based Vivid offers an array of tickets online for events across North America. 
• It is the official ticketing partner of ESPN and the Los Angeles Clippers NBA team, among others. 
• It also owns Vivid Picks, a fantasy sports app.

NBA Local TV Rights May Be Up for Grabs After Regular Season – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• The National Basketball Association struck an agreement with bankrupt sports broadcaster Diamond Sports Group that likely clears the way for its teams’ local television rights to hit the open market following the end of its current season.
• Under the terms of the accord, Diamond would retain the right to broadcast its full slate of NBA games through its network of regional Bally Sports channels for the league’s current 2023-2024 season, Andrew Goldman, a lawyer for the company, said at a court hearing on Monday. 
• After that, Diamond’s existing broadcast deals with teams in the league would expire and “the NBA will no longer be tethered to us, or we tethered to them,” Goldman said.
• The NBA’s local TV rights are expected to attract considerable interest from tech giants and media companies vying to increase their exposure to one of the nation’s premier professional sports leagues.

Signature Loan Sale Likely to Lower Commercial-Property Values – Wall Street Journal, 11/7/2023

• The sale of Signature Bank’s $33 billion in commercial-property loans and other assets is expected to attract bids as much as 40% below face value, offering new evidence of how much property prices have eroded.
• Regulators closed Signature Bank in March after a run on its deposits, marking the fourth-largest bank failure in U.S. history. 
• Now, the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. is auctioning off thousands of Signature loans backed by apartment buildings and other commercial properties primarily in the New York region. 
• Bids are due Thursday on what is the biggest and most closely watched commercial-property sale of the year. 
• Loans are expected to sell on average 15% to 40% below their original face amount, according to prospective bidders. 
• Those discounts will likely affect values of New York commercial property for a number of years. 
• The market will get an initial data point from the coming loan sale and again when the loans are resolved, either through a payoff, a loan sale or a foreclosure, said D. Michael Van Konynenburg, president of real-estate investment-banking firm Eastdil Secured.

US ECONOMY & POLITICS

US Trade Deficit Widens by More Than Forecast on Goods Demand – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• The US trade deficit widened by more than expected in September, reflecting the resilience of American demand for foreign goods.
• The shortfall in goods and services trade expanded 4.9% from the prior month to $61.5 billion, Commerce Department data showed Tuesday. 
• The median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists had called for a $59.8 billion gap.
• The value of imports rose to the highest since February, while exports increased to a more than one-year high. 
• On an inflation-adjusted basis, the merchandise trade deficit widened to $86.5 billion.
• With the help of solid hiring and low unemployment, American demand for foreign-made goods like cell phones and cars remains firm.
• Travel exports — or spending by visitors to the US — rose to the highest since the end of 2019.
• Travel imports — a measure of Americans traveling abroad — climbed to just shy of a record high.
• The US merchandise-trade deficit with China widened slightly.
• The goods shortfall with Mexico narrowed to the tightest since March.

Fed Officials Focus on Inflation Amid Signs of Resilient Economy – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• Two Federal Reserve officials emphasized Tuesday that bringing inflation fully down to the central bank’s 2% goal is their main focus, amid signs that the economy and labor market are holding up.
• “We’ve got to get inflation down — that’s the No. 1 thing,” Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said Tuesday in an interview with CNBC. 
• “I’m absolutely hammering that’s what we should be watching,” adding that the economic and job growth can’t be the key focus now.
• “To get inflation down as much as we’re getting it down without a big recession, that’s basically never happened,” Goolsbee said. 
• “But because of some of the strangeness of this moment there is the possibility of the golden path, that we got inflation down without a recession.”
• Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari, speaking on Bloomberg Television, echoed Goolsbee’s commitment to cool prices but said the Fed’s inflation fight isn’t over yet.
• “Ultimately, the economy will tell us how much is needed to get there. And I just don’t know,” Kashkari said, adding that he and his colleagues need to bring prices down “in a reasonable period of time.”
• “If we didn’t back off a little bit, then real rates would be getting tighter and tighter and tighter and that’s real, that’s math,” Kashkari said.
• “I’m not seeing a lot of evidence that the economy is weakening,” he said.

Trump Leads in 5 Critical States as Voters Blast Biden, Times/Siena Poll Finds – New York Times, 11/7/2023

• The results show Mr. Biden losing to Mr. Trump, his likeliest Republican rival, by margins of four to 10 percentage points among registered voters in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada and Pennsylvania. 
• Mr. Biden is ahead only in Wisconsin, by two percentage points, the poll found.
• Across the six battlegrounds — all of which Mr. Biden carried in 2020 — the president trails by an average of 48 to 44 percent.
• Voters under 30 favor Mr. Biden by only a single percentage point, his lead among Hispanic voters is down to single digits and his advantage in urban areas is half of Mr. Trump’s edge in rural regions.
• And while women still favored Mr. Biden, men preferred Mr. Trump by twice as large a margin, reversing the gender advantage that had fueled so many Democratic gains in recent years.
• Black voters — long a bulwark for Democrats and for Mr. Biden — are now registering 22 percent support in these states for Mr. Trump, a level unseen in presidential politics for a Republican in modern times.
• Add it all together, and Mr. Trump leads by 10 points in Nevada, six in Georgia, five in Arizona, five in Michigan and four in Pennsylvania. Mr. Biden held a 2-point edge in Wisconsin.

Fed Says Tight Credit Standards, Weak Demand Persist at US Banks – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• The Federal Reserve said US banks broadly reported tight lending standards and weak demand for loans in the third quarter, though both measures improved somewhat compared with the prior three-month period.
• The proportion of US banks tightening standards on commercial and industrial loans for medium and large businesses fell to 33.9%, from 50.8% in the second quarter, according to a Fed survey of lending officers released Monday.
• Some 62.7% of banks are keeping lending conditions basically unchanged.
• The survey showed an improvement in demand for credit, with the share of banks reporting weaker demand for commercial and industrial loans among large and mid-sized firms at 30.5%, down from 51.6% in the second quarter.

Fed’s Barr Says Private Crypto Stablecoins Pose Financial Risk – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• The Federal Reserve’s top bank watchdog reiterated the central bank’s concern over the potential impacts of crypto stablecoins on the US financial system.
• Michael Barr, the Fed’s vice chair for supervision, said the tokens can amount to private money and have destabilizing effects on finance, if left unchecked. 
• Barr has previously said private-industry crypto tokens pegged to assets like the US dollar could scale quickly due to financial network effects.
• “There is interest in strong, federal regulation of stablecoins that makes sure the Federal Reserve can approve, regulate and enforce against stablecoin issuers, including wallets,” he said at the DC Fintech Week event on Tuesday. 
• “We need a strong framework. It’s better if Congress can decide the rules of the road.”
• Barr also reiterated that the Fed continues to study the kinds of technologies that would underlie a digital currency backed by the central bank. 
• He has said the Fed wouldn’t move ahead with any plans unless Congress and the executive branch of government wanted it to.

Top Biden Officials Press Congress for More Economic Aid to Ukraine – Wall Street Journal, 11/7/2023

• Biden administration officials are pressing Congress to approve more economic aid to Ukraine, trying to overcome growing Republican opposition to financial support that has stabilized the Ukrainian economy after Russia’s invasion.
• In a letter sent to Capitol Hill, four top Biden administration officials urged lawmakers to provide $11.8 billion in direct budget support to Kyiv to help pay its day-to-day bills. 
• While Republicans are divided over whether to supply Ukraine with more materiel, there is broad skepticism within the GOP over offering more economic aid. 
• That stance has alarmed the Biden administration, which is seeking the money as part of a roughly $106 billion emergency funding request covering Ukraine, Israel and other issues.

EUROPE & WORLD

UBS Group Swings to Net Loss as Credit Suisse Costs Weigh – Wall Street Journal, 11/7/2023

• Switzerland’s UBS swung to a third-quarter net loss after costs and expenses related the integration of peer Credit Suisse cut into the bank’s earnings.
• Revenue, meanwhile, rose 42% to $11.695 billion, beating $11.32 billion in consensus expectations.
• Net fee and commission income, a key profit driver for UBS, increased 35% to $6.07 billion in the period, the Swiss bank said Tuesday.
• New deposits came to $33 billion across UBS’s global wealth management and its personal and corporate banking businesses, it said, adding that $22 billion came from Credit Suisse clients.
• Revenue grew 21% at its global wealth-management business, but operating expenses rose 44% during the reporting period, UBS said.
• Revenue also grew at its asset-management business, but operating expenses jumped by 93% and revenues rose at UBS’s investment bank.
• Operating expenses soared 97% to $11.64 billion, reflecting Credit Suisse expenses and integration costs as well as unfavorable foreign-currency effects in some areas. 
• Analysts had expected $11.7 billion.
• UBS, which in June closed its acquisition of Credit Suisse as part of a rescue of the former rival, reported a net loss of $785 million compared with $1.73 billion in net profit in the prior year, missing estimates of a $444 million loss, according to a bank-provided consensus of analyst views.
• It said that it saw $22 billion in net new money at its global wealth-management business, driven by the bank winning back assets and by new clients, with $18 billion coming through its own unit. 
• It added that it saw positive net new money of $3 billion at Credit Suisse’s wealth management in the period, a first since the first quarter of last year.

Saudi Aramco Profit Falls on Lower Oil Prices, Volumes – Wall Street Journal, 11/7/2023

• Saudi Arabia’s national oil company reported a fall in quarterly profit due to lower energy prices and volumes sold in the period, but kept its payout to shareholders at the previous-quarter’s level.
• Aramco’s revenue rose to 424.1 billion Saudi riyals ($112.97 billion) in the quarter from SAR402.56 billion in the previous-year period, while capital expenditure increased to $11.03 billion from $9.04 billion.
• Saudi Arabian Oil , known as Aramco, said Tuesday that net profit came to $32.58 billion in the three months ended in September, down 23% from $42.43 billion a year earlier, when it benefited from soaring energy prices following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
• Aramco said it would pay its shareholders a base dividend of $19.51 billion for the third quarter—in line with the previous quarter—and a performance-linked dividend of $9.87 billion, for a total of $29.38 billion.
• Free cash flow fell to $20.34 billion from $44.97 billion in the same period of last year, while the gearing ratio declined to minus 7.6% as of Sept. 30 from minus 7.9% as of the end of last year.

China’s Import Surprise Offers Hope as Recovery Risks Linger – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• China’s trade data for October offered a mixed picture for the economy’s outlook, as an unexpected pickup in imports was offset by signs that global demand for Chinese goods is struggling to gain traction.
• Imports rose 3% from a year earlier last month, the first gain in eight months and bucking the consensus forecast for a drop. 
• Overseas shipments dropped 6.4%, worse than expectations. 
• The resulting trade surplus was $56.5 billion.
• For China, however, exports to the US declined 8.2% in the first 10 months from a year ago in dollar terms, while that to the European Union dropped 12.6%, according to customs data.
• The volume of China’s crude oil imports climbed 14.4% in the first 10 months of the year from a year ago, while that of coal surged 66.8%, according to customs data.

Shein Targets Up to $90 Billion Valuation in US IPO, Sources Say – Bloomberg, 11/7/2023

• Shein is touting its hopes for a valuation of as much as $90 billion as it lays the groundwork for an eventual US initial public offering, a level that far exceeds how the fast-fashion giant is valued in private trades, according to people familiar with the matter.
• The company has told prospective investors that it’s aiming to fetch a valuation of $80 billion to $90 billion in a listing, the people said. 
• The timing of the share sale remains uncertain given the market volatility, according to the people.
• Stakes that have recently changed hands in the secondary market valued the company at around $50 billion to $60 billion, the people said.
• Founded in China more than a decade ago, Shein recently moved its headquarters to Singapore and has worked to distance itself from its country of origin. 
• The online retailer expects its net income to reach $2.5 billion this year despite the intensifying competition, said the people, who asked not to be identified as the information is private. 
• Its net income in 2019 was around 1 billion yuan ($137 million), an investor presentation at the time showed.

Netanyahu Says Israel Will Control Gaza Security Indefinitely – Wall Street Journal, 11/7/2023

• Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said Israel would seek to assume overall responsibility for security in Gaza, in an early indication that Israel plans to occupy the strip after the war, raising more questions about its exit strategy.
• “I think Israel for an indefinite period will have the overall security responsibility, because we’ve seen what happens when we don’t have it,” Netanyahu said on ABC News overnight. 
• “When we don’t have that security responsibility, what we have is the eruption of Hamas terror on a scale that we couldn’t imagine.”
• Since the Hamas terrorist attacks of Oct. 7 that sparked the war, Israeli officials have said little about their long-term plans for Gaza besides destroying the ability of the militant group to rule there.
• President Biden has repeatedly said Israel has a right and duty to defend itself. 
• But he has also cautioned Israel against occupying Gaza, saying it would be a “big mistake.”

Factmonster – TODAY in HISTORY

• The Republican Party was first symbolized as an elephant in a cartoon drawn by Thomas Nast in Harper’s Weekly magazine. – 1874
• Jeannette Rankin of Montana became the first woman elected to Congress. – 1916
• Vladimir Lenin’s forces overthrew Alexander Kerensky’s government in Russia’s Bolshevik Revolution. – 1917
• President Franklin D. Roosevelt won a fourth term in office, defeating Thomas E. Dewey. – 1944
• Carl Stokes of Cleveland became the first African American mayor of a major U.S. city. – 1967
• L. Douglas Wilder was elected governor of Virginia. He became the nation’s first elected black governor. – 1989
• The U.S. went to the polls to choose between George W. Bush and Al Gore. The outcome wouldn’t be known for more than a month because of disputed votes in Florida. – 2000

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